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value added during the period (019% from underweighting France and 011% from overweighting Japan) to the asset allocation decision But how do we interpret the 0254% currency effect One way to interpret the currency effect is similar to that of the allocation effect, where we credit the manager with a gain due to allocating assets to markets that outperformed during the period One problem with this interpretation, however, is that currency returns actually have two components: an expected return given the difference in interest rates at the beginning of the period, as well as an unexpected return In this section we discuss a method to isolate the expected from the unexpected return in order to credit the manager only with the return that could not have been anticipated at the beginning of the period.

The reason for a component of currency return that can be anticipated at the beginning of the period is that currency returns are in uenced by the difference between interest rates in the two markets on either side of the exchange rate The difference in interest rates prevailing within two countries is called the interest rate differential For example, if interest rates in Japan were higher than interest rates in the United States at the beginning of the period, we would expect that the Japanese yen would depreciate versus the dollar during the period Over time we expect high interest rate currencies to depreciate relative to low interest rate currencies.

Changes in operating environment. Changes in the regulatory or operating environment can result in changes in competitive pressures and significantly different risks.

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allow water seepage into the ground. The water is then heated by the hot rock and can naturally circulate back to the surface, forming hot springs, geysers, and mud pots. Assuming that the water is not allowed to recirculate but is trapped by impermeable rock, the water lls the rock pores and cracks, forming a geothermal reservoir. The direct use of geothermal energy is achieved primarily by using shallower reservoirs of lower temperatures. Hot springs and spas are very popular around the world and are utilized when the sulfur content is relatively low. Other applications involve use of the reservoirs for agricultural production, aquacultures, industrial applications, and heating. Geothermal resources can be used either for power generation or direct consumption. There are four methods of power generation: direct-steam power generation, ash-steam power generation, binary cycle power generation, and combined/hybrid power generation. Direct-steam power generation is the least common type of generation and is characterized by vapor-dominated and dry steam reservoirs. Most common uses of shallower reservoirs of lower temperatures are for bathing and spas, agriculture, aquaculture, industrial use, and district heating. The industrial use is related to the drying of sh, fruits, vegetables, and timber; wool washing; cloth dying; paper manufacture; milk pasteurization; and piping under sidewalks and roads to keep them from icing over in freezing weather. Flash-steam generation, the most common type of generation, is used in hightemperature applications; an example is shown in Figure B.1. It is characterized by liquid-dominated reservoirs, ashing the water into steam to turn turbines.

This must be so in order to eliminate an arbitrage opportunity whereby, for example, investors could earn a risk-free return by borrowing at the risk-free rate in the United States during the period, exchange dollars for yen, and then invest in Japanese risk-free investments during the period To eliminate the arbitrage opportunity, holding all other in uences on exchange rates constant, the value of the yen will fall during the period, as measured in US dollars, in an amount required to offset the interest rate differential Because of the relationship between interest rate differentials and expected currency returns, a portion of the currency effect might have been expected at the beginning of the period, given the funds over- or underweight in a particular currency relative to the benchmark.

We could take the position that we should not credit the manager with the portion of the currency effect that is due to the anticipated return, and instead only credit the manager with the portion of the currency return not already priced into the market at the beginning of the period We can observe the priced-in return effect by observing the difference between the spot and forward rates at the beginning of the period In fact, we can lock in the anticipated component of currency return at the beginning of the period by entering into forward contracts to hedge the forward currency exposures..

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